While some major natural rubber (NR) producing countries plan to cut supply, the opposite trend may be true for some other producing countries.  Thailand plans to fell old rubber trees on 400,000 rai of the total 15.45 million rai and persuade growers to tap the remaining trees less frequently to help cut supply and shore up rubber prices (Bangkok Post, 24 October 2008).  The government had a plan to replant rubber tress, but has not been successful over the past few years due to surging rubber prices. 

In Malaysia, the annual rubber production is expected to be reduced by 10% in 2009 (Irco.biz, 26 November 2008).  Production will be reduced through the implementation of an ongoing replanting programme and also a decrease in tapping.  The government said exports may be restricted if there is any further fall in prices. The International Rubber Consortium (IRCo), which groups the three major producers comprising Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, announced a plan to cut production by 215,000 tonnes in 2009.  IRCo announced a package of measures, including the acceleration of existing replanting programs, cutting back on new plantings and a possible general reduction in tapping intensity to try to halt the slide in rubber prices.

On the other hand, there are signs that an increase can be expected from major African producers.  The leading African rubber producer, Cote d’Ivoire has continued to increase its output in recent years.  The production is expected to triple in the next 10 years as farmers have planted new trees in the past years due to rising prices become mature (Dow Jones, 26 November 2008).  Singapore-listed rubber planter and processor GMG Global will double NR production at its Hevecam plantation in southern Cameroon (Reuters, 12 November 2008).  The company expects strong demand from China and has recently acquired 46,000 hectares of more land near Kribi to extend its Hevecam plantation and hopes to double production in a few years.  

Vietnam is expected to double its rubber plantation acreage to over one-million hectares by 2020 (Dow Jones Newswires, 27 November 2008).  At the same time, some Vietnamese companies intend to invest in rubber plantation in other countries, notably the Ho Chi Minh City Rubber Joint Stock company plans to grow rubber trees and construct a rubber latex processing factory in Laos’s southern Champasak province (Thai News Agency, 17 November 2008).  The project has a total investment capital of 30 million dollars and an operational duration of 30 years.  Separately, the Tay Nguyen Investment Joint Stock Company has been licensed to invest in rubber plantations in Attapeu province.  Under this agreement, the company plans to invest 15 million dollars in planting 2,000 hectares of rubber trees each year to 2013.

In the Philippines, the South Cotabato provincial government hopes to turn a vast portion of the province into a rubber plantation in a five-year period starting 2009 (Thai News Service, 2 December 2008).  There is a plan to turn some 10,000 hectares of land spread throughout the 10 towns of the province into a rubber plantation, which is considered as a high revenue earner.  According to the authority, the planting materials will be distributed to farmers under a plant-now pay-later scheme to encourage farmers into planting rubber.  For 2009, the province hopes to have some 2,400 hectares initially planted to rubber and a yearly 1,900 hectares until 2013.

So, will the global rubber acreages increase or decrease in coming years?  It is important to realize that rubber prices have been increasing for almost six years, before this recent sharp decline.  Furthermore, even with a sharp decline the prices are still profitable in many producing countries.  It will be interesting to observe the level of rubber acreage in coming years as this will be an important factor determining rubber output and prices.